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Around the start of any new year it’s customary for agencies to dig out their marketing tarot cards and come up with a few predictions on what they think will be big news over the next 12 months.

Well, if you’ll allow us to return to the topic one last time you’ll see there’s one trend that’s already showing signs of being the true dominant force in digital this year – a trend that’s far bigger than any single platform or flashy new website.

In 2012, the dominant theme will be conflict.

Three’s A Crowd…

It’s an ironic turn for an industry based around sharing and being “social”. Up until this point, Facebook, Twitter and, to a lesser extent, Google+ have all existed alongside each other in relative peace, occasionally poking their head up above the parapet to acknowledge the presence of another new arrival, but rarely anything more than that. However, recent posturing from all three major players would suggest that things are about to change.

The past five-to-ten years can be looked upon as a sort of ‘honeymoon period’, one in which social prospectors enjoyed unfettered growth without needing to really step on the toes of their competitors (the demise of MySpace notwithstanding). Now it seems as if the social landscape is approaching critical mass – a point at which the number of users willing to actively engage with social media reaches a plateau – and suddenly where there was once open-minded collectivism and mutual appreciation there is now increasing hostility, aggression and isolationism.

Take the recent (and unusually public) spat between Google and Twitter, for example. Google recently made headlines with the announcement of its ‘Search, Plus Your World’ initiative: a set of changes to its search algorithm that places added emphasis on Google+ pages within search results, effectively ‘favouritising’ them above content taken from the wider internet.

The revelation caused a tsunami of raised eyebrows among social media commentators and everyday internet users alike. Facebook engineers invented a tool to counteract some of the changes, but it was Twitter who came out as the most vocal critics, openly denouncing Search Plus in a letter to several major media outlets. This then prompted Google to issue a rather flippant rebuttal (via Google+, of course!), leaving professional relations between the two companies frosty at best.

Knives Out

In Google’s eyes, the shift to Search Plus is simply a move to keep them competitive, especially given Facebook’s increasingly cosy relationship with Microsoft’s Bing search engine. However, what Google appear to have failed to grasp is that this desire to compete is the very crux of their problem.

In the days before Google+, Google was largely an impartial observer in the great battle for social media supremacy – and rightly so. Now that they’ve waded into the ring brandishing their own platform, the delicate equilibrium has been unbalanced and defences are being raised on all fronts. Google might think this is game on, but in actual fact it will not end well for anyone, least of all them.

And here’s why: people place a huge amount of faith and trust in their search engine, relying on it to deliver the results they want without fuss. By taking the decision to actively reward their own pages above others, Google are undermining the very trust that is the lifeblood of their business – and once that trust is gone, it’s going to be very hard to win back.

Google hope that the move to Search Plus will force more brands to expand their presence on Google+, but it’s a dangerous gamble to make. While they dig their heels in and prepare for a long fight, there is absolutely no reason why a rival such as Bing couldn’t swoop in and take over the role of impartial search provider.

And it’s not like Google have much choice; after the unmitigated failure of both Buzz and Wave, there is a huge amount of professional credibility (not to mention money) riding on the success of Google+, and there is no way they are about to accept defeat lying down.

Ready To Rumble

So, it’s Google and Google+ in one corner, Facebook and Bing in the other, with Twitter flitting around the edges trying avoid catching a stray when the blows really start raining down. But where does that leave everyone else?

In the short term it looks like we’re all going to have to pay a bit of extra attention to Google+, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see the uptake of new pages rise dramatically among brands and users alike. The real question is just how long that uneasy state of affairs can last.

Brands can easily replicate action across two platforms simultaneously, but asking users to maintain an active presence across both Facebook and Google+ seems like a step too far, and there will likely be only one clear winner when the dust settles.

Who that winner is, we shall have to wait and see.

Ding ding, round one…

We are looking for a Motion Graphic Designer to join our online video content team here at Outside Line.

Some of our work is produced in collaboration with our digital studio, therefore a good understanding of interactive design and technology is essential.

Photography, film & directing experience will count in your favour.

Salary is 30 – 35 k.

Submissions without portfolio or showreel will not be considered.

Our Agency:

http://outsideline.co.uk/

Our video work:

http://vimeo.com/outsideline/videos

Please send all applications to adam[dot]alexandroni[at]outsideline.com

2011 was a game-changing year for digital (although let’s face it, every year is when it comes to the Internet). We saw the birth of Facebook’s Timeline, got to know Siri, and who would have picked that Instagram would grow to be bigger than Foursquare?

And we’re excited for what’s coming next. We’ve made a list of predictions on what will shape the digital environment in 2012.

Facebook Actions

Facebook is about to offer frictionless sharing by integrating the various actions users take across the web into the social network. Actions are similar to the ‘Like’ button on display but would include elements like ‘Read’, ‘Listen’, and ‘Watch’ – these are automatically posted on your timeline or news ticker.

Depending on how wide they open up the action functionality, it could lead to brands being able to take ownership of whole verbs specifically for their campaign.

Social Plugins and Aggregators

We’ll probably continue to see a rise in mobile services that plug into the existing social environment (like Flipboard, Path and Instagram). These types of aggregators play on the idea or thought that social media has evolved as a tool for the curation, distribution and sharing of current and news and events.

We may even see behemoths like Facebook fragment bits of their services into discreet apps (as they’ve already done with chat), letting you use the platform à la carte.

Mobile Wallets

It may be early days yet, but we believe the tap technology of Google Wallet and other mobile apps will catch on fast. Our Scandinavian correspondent reports that, in Stockholm, travel cards are fading away as people simply scan their phones to access public transport. In the UK, use of NFC (Near Field Communications) is set to boom as it is integrated across London 2012 sites.

Pinterest: the new social favourite

Both highly visual and addictive, one sharing tool that has caught our attention is Pinterest. The tool makes it a snap to share images, quotes, articles and products. It is also a lot more ‘credit friendly’ than Tumblr, tracking repins and where images originate.

According to Businessweek, traffic has increased sevenfold in the last five months, and recent investment in the company, means Pinterest is set to launch more features. Word has it that, in the near future, content shared on it will enjoy significant SEO value if tagged appropriately.

Google+

Will Google+ shake up social media in 2012 or will it just mess up the Internet? We see a lot of opportunity for Google+ to be used in interesting ways, but we think it needs some more dedicated development from Google’s team, otherwise it could go the way of Buzz.

Brands need to be aware that search engines evolve, social endorsements such as ‘plus ones’, ‘likes’ and ‘tweets’ can have real SEO value applied to them, as SERPs become tailored for individual users.